Here is the translation of the provided text into English: **Main Text:** Breaking news!
Argentina significantly increases lithium production.
According to a Bloomberg report on the 29th, four new lithium mines in Argentina will start production in the coming months, which will increase Argentina's annual lithium production capacity by 79%, reaching 202,000 metric tons equivalent.
Argentina is a major country in global lithium reserves, with nearly 19 million tons of identified lithium resources, accounting for about 21% of the total global reserves.
The global lithium reserves are about 100 million tons.
According to a report released by the United States Geological Survey in January 2023, the global identified lithium reserves are about 98 million tons.
Among them, Bolivia has identified reserves of 21 million tons, Argentina has 20 million tons, and Chile has 11 million tons.
On July 20, 2023, Bolivian President Arce stated that the country's identified lithium reserves have increased from 21 million tons to 23 million tons, becoming the world's first.
The market is in an uproar, is lithium carbonate doomed?
To be honest, it's a bit panicky.
But if you look at the historical patterns, you might find it's a false alarm.
A few years ago, I said that aside from the upstream of new energy, global electrification, I don't see many opportunities.
Later, I observed that although new energy has not been able to quickly take over, there has been an adjustment in the last two years.
However, during this period, old energy has risen sharply, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has risen to the top three in the A-share market, China Shenhua Coal's leading position has also seen a continuous rise for three years, and the power king, Yangtze Power, has continued to rise for ten years in a bull market.
The two giants of the 2008 crisis have started to rise for many years.
China Shenhua has recovered half of its value, and although China National Petroleum Corporation is still a significant distance from its high of 48 yuan, it is also strong to rise for three consecutive years.
The significant increase in net profit also brings hope for the future.
The future energy fluctuations are getting bigger, and China National Petroleum Corporation is starting to become a pillar.
Overall, new energy has fallen, old energy has risen, new and old energy are not in conflict, nor contradictory.
So, new energy is not replacing old energy, but supplementing it.
New and old energy can coexist and strengthen each other.
Unfortunately, I was still scared by the old problems of the A-share market, thinking that China National Petroleum Corporation is too big, and China Shenhua coal futures are guided not to rise, thinking that there might be a protective plate, but a big rise is unrealistic.
But looking back now, old energy has almost risen to the madness of new energy in the past few years.
Big, fierce, hard.
It's just awesome.
Old fool, I was always influenced by the big A's small fry.
So, for this time Argentina's expansion of lithium production, on the surface, it is an impact on lithium carbonate, but it actually also impacts fuel vehicles.
Coupled with policy-driven new energy development, the global market is being impacted by smart cars, and now there is an expectation of price reduction, fuel vehicles will also face great pressure.
For the new energy vehicle industry, it is a good thing to accelerate the new energyization.
How big is the future global car market size?
I said in the above text that the valuation of smart cars is often much greater than that of traditional fuel cars of the same scale under the blessing of intelligence.
Because smart products are a continuous payment, and after being intelligent, the iteration is particularly fast.
The economic value generated will be greater, and it will be geometrically amplified.
Now, the global car sales volume is about 90 million vehicles per year, with the rise of India, the future global car sales volume will easily exceed 100 million vehicles per year, or even more.
Coupled with the development of smart aircraft and other transportation tools and logistics, the entire smart transportation market size will be very large.
It is expected to increase by more than ten times the scale of traditional cars, that is, the current total scale of the traditional car market is about 1 trillion USD, then entering the intelligent era, the total value of smart cars may exceed 10 trillion USD.
This big market is currently leading far ahead in China.
Valuation of 3 trillion USD?
How much is Huawei's car system worth?
The valuation of global smart cars and smart aircraft may exceed 10 trillion USD.
How many are there in the big A?
The world is accelerating into the new energy era.
The global lithium demand in 2050 is 11.2 million tons LCE - Benchmark forecast.
According to the latest data from the lithium industry consulting firm Benchmark, driven by the growth of energy storage and electric vehicles, by the middle of this century, the global lithium demand will be more than 20 times the mining volume of 2021.
Due to the growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy, by 2050, the world will need an annual production of 11.2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), and energy storage will account for two-thirds of battery demand.
The prospect is optimistic, the short term is volatile, and the pressure is not only from industry pressure, but mainly from the current popularity of the big A-share market, the environment and atmosphere are not good, the market pressure is too complex, suppressing the entire market.
It is too helpless.
According to Benchmark's forecast, by 2032, the global lithium demand will reach 2.9 million tons LCE.
The United States and the European Union have both committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and China has set a goal to achieve this by 2060.
As part of this goal, the European Union has committed to banning the sale of gasoline and diesel cars by 2035, and China has expressed a desire to sell only "new energy vehicles" before that date, including hybrid cars and fuel cell cars.
Leave a Comment