The market has finally erupted, unexpectedly, under the impact of a dense wave of significant positive news.
The "one bank, one association, one bureau" have joined hands to deliver a major policy package, which is far more powerful than the four "epic-level" heavy benefits last year on August 28.
Perhaps I am too forgetful, I really can't remember a time in the history of A-shares when so many benefits were released in a single day.
Interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, reductions in existing housing loans, and so on, may all be considered just an appetizer, and the most critical one for the stock market is this: President Pan stated that loans to financial institutions amounting to 500 billion yuan will be given, and this money can only be used to buy stocks.
First, there will be a 500 billion yuan, then another 500 billion yuan could follow, and even a third 500 billion yuan could be possible.
At the same time, a special loan for share buybacks and increases has been established, starting with 300 billion yuan, with the possibility of expanding the scale in the future depending on the situation.
It feels like the central bank has given financial institutions and listed companies a check that can be cashed at will; if there is a need for funds, just come and get it.
This is simply too generous.
President Pan also stated that the stabilization fund is under study.
Every word from President Pan hits the nail on the head.
Each one contains a huge amount of information, directly stimulating today's increase of more than 420 billion yuan in funds entering the market.
Today's trading volume is forcing a trillion yuan.
The increase in trading volume is as high as 76%.
The market has actively responded to the dense policy benefits with actual actions, with the Shanghai Composite Index soaring by 4.15%, setting a single-day record high increase in more than four years, and the GEM soaring by 5.54%.
The four major stock indices have turned around the short-term downward trend at one go, with an increase in volume on the 20-day and 30-day moving averages, and also on the 5-week and 10-week moving averages, returning to a bullish trend in the short term.
The Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index have also stood on the 60-day moving average, becoming the strongest indices in the short term.
In the short term, we have always emphasized that only when the Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index, which represent the market's money-making effect, are strong first, can the market as a whole be strong.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply higher in the morning, not only making up the gap that was not filled, but also forming an upward gap, technically forming an island reversal pattern, completely changing the short-term unfavorable situation.
However, it is not very credible to determine a medium to long-term turning point based solely on a single day's large volume and long red line.
Why do I say this?
First, bear markets often have long red lines.
The market has experienced such a long period of decline, and it is expected to have a retaliatory rebound, which is nothing unexpected.
The credibility of a single day's long red line is not high, and it is necessary to observe for at least two more days.
Second, today's rebound is entirely due to the dense combination of policies, and the strength of the combination punch can be described as epic, so it is normal for the market to respond positively.
Finally, the expectation of the policy combination punch is very beautiful, and the key lies in the implementation strength in the future.
The subsequent promotion is very important, and the release of short-term benefits is too strong, which is also not conducive to the in-depth development of the market.
In short, this market is changeable.
It is true that a large amount of funds have entered the market in the short term, but what kind of mentality these funds have, still needs to be verified by the subsequent trend.
When the right timing, favorable conditions, and unity are all in place, it is not difficult for the market to have a day of large volume and increase, but it is difficult to continue for the second and third days.
After a short-term surge, whether the funds are willing to continue to do more depends on the strength of the support tomorrow.
If it can still maintain a high position and not reduce the volume tomorrow, the short-term market can continue to be promoted.
If viewed from the K-line shape, the gap left today will inevitably be feared by the bulls, and investors are always worried about filling the gap.
Today's large volume increase is more about reversing the short-term pessimistic sentiment, and it is not enough to judge the reversal of the medium-term pessimistic trend.
From my personal forecast, this kind of acceleration rebound that relies on sudden heavy news, without a slow volume increase in the short term, and after a period of slow running, cannot constitute the conditions for a medium to long-term reversal, and is only limited to the short term.
In terms of operation, I still don't have the courage to chase the rise, and I still prefer to absorb low, and if the short-term continues to rise sharply, I will continue to wait with the existing position.
If the short-term callback does not reduce the volume, I will choose to absorb low.
In short, don't shout that the bull market is coming because of a day's large volume and increase.
This market has never announced the arrival of a bull market with a single large volume and long red line, otherwise, this bull market is too worthless.
The bull market often comes out when everyone is not paying attention, and when most people do not expect it.
When you react, the bull market has already reached halfway up the mountain.
I have always hated the rebound of a day and shouting the bull market.
After falling so much, it is ridiculous to shout the bull market after a day of rebound.
The market will not make money because you firmly look at the bull market, nor will it lose money because I deny the bull market at the moment.
Next, let's focus on a few hot topics in the market.
1.
Rise, rise, rise!
China's financial "combination punch" promotes the general rise of Asian stock markets, and the Asia-Pacific stock index has reached a new high in two and a half years.
1.
Has the bottom been established?
My view above is very clear, the short-term bottom is established, and it is difficult to establish a medium to long-term bottom, and it still needs to be observed for a few more days.
Of course, compared to my cautious attitude, Chen Guo of CITIC Construction Investment is much more optimistic.
Chen Guo clearly stated: the bottom has been established, and the callback is an opportunity.
Securities firms have always been weathervanes, always firm bullish, especially the more they fall, the more they look bullish.
The reason for this is also very clear to everyone.
Securities firms rely on the market for food, who can smash their own rice bowl.
Of course, this does not mean that their judgment this time is not necessarily the true inner thoughts, but I just don't agree.
Chen Guo judged that the market will "first rebound and then reverse".
Chen Guo of CITIC Construction Investment believes that the actual impact of the policy combination punch mainly has three aspects: 1.
Risk preference: The policy signal is clear, and the market risk preference is first improved.
2.
Liquidity: A-shares are expected to usher in a new batch of incremental funds, and the specific effect is still to be observed.
3.
Fundamentals: It is expected to boost consumer spending and alleviate the pressure on the real estate chain.
Based on the above three aspects, Chen Guo gave the judgment of "the bottom has been established, and the callback is an opportunity".
The improvement of risk preference and the change of liquidity will take effect in the short term, but the improvement of fundamentals requires a longer time to change, and it is also the most important factor affecting the market.
And what Chen Guo said about the bottom being established, how long it really needs to truly get out of the bottom and achieve a real upward trend, there is no clear timetable, and this process is often very painful.
2.
When will the banks implement the "interest rate cut" for existing housing loans?
Many banks said they have to wait for more than a month.
President Pan stated that this policy is expected to benefit 50 million households and 150 million people, with an average annual reduction in family interest expenses of about 150 billion yuan.
For the majority of mortgage families, the most wanted to know is when the mortgage interest rate cut can be realized.
In this way, the saved money can be used for consumption.
It can also indirectly bring a certain amount of incremental funds to the stock market.
At present, banks have responded that they have paid attention to the policy of adjusting the interest rate of existing housing loans, and have not yet received the relevant adjustment notice, and will adjust it uniformly at that time.
At the same time, industry insiders said that if the new policy is issued, major banks will probably need one to several months to land and adjust, and will basically be completed within the same period.
3.
President Pan stated that the "creation of a special re-lending loan for share buybacks and increases" has sparked heated discussions in the market, what is the situation?
The meaning is that if listed companies want to repurchase and increase their own stocks, if there is no money, they can borrow through special loans, and the interest rate is naturally very low.
The first phase of the special loan quota is 300 billion yuan, and the scale can be expanded in the future depending on the situation.
The market is worried about "whether it involves illegal entry of credit funds into the market" and has become the focus.
Many interviewed people believe that this operation may break through the regulations of the central bank's "Loan Regulations" and needs to be modified and improved.
Zeng Gang, director and chief expert of the Shanghai Financial and Development Laboratory, said in an interview that its source of funds is not the bank's own funds, but the central bank provides re-lending to banks for listed companies to repurchase and increase.
Neither the central bank nor the banks have entered the market, which is different from "illegal entry of credit funds into the market".
"It is considered a precision support tool based on marketization and legalization, which not only avoids credit funds entering the market and excessive intervention in the market, but also meets the reasonable needs of the market in terms of investment direction."
Zeng Gang believes.
Such a rescue market effort is indeed unprecedented, but it must be strictly controlled in the execution.
The biggest concern of the market is that a large number of loans are used for repurchase and increase, and once they are sold at a high position, they will form a secondary injury to the market.
When the specific special loan can be implemented may still need some time.
Overall, this heavy benefit is real, and there is basically no element of drawing a big cake.
The key lies in the implementation level next.
As long as it is implemented in place, the market rise is also very relaxed.
Don't get excited as soon as you see an increase, this market is very painful, and you can't get fat in one bite.
First, respond to the market with an optimistic attitude in the short term, but do not chase high.
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